Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d0f…fc91 other 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$13
politics 27% −$8
sports 16% +$4
world 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 73 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 123 -2.1% -11.4% 11% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 2% -18.2%
15% -27.6% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage132d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $194 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $172 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $143 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $130 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $146 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $332 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $372 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $174 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $152 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $131 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $175 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $295 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $184 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $150 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $135 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $175 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $394 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $401 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 18 $197 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $239 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $204 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $357 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $456 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $185 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $209 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $173 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $311 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $228 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $213 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $405 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 6h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 44h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 46h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $24 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 18d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 23d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 24d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $172 26d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $172 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $143 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $143 28d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $177 28d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $177 29d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $130 29d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $130 29d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $146 29d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $146 30d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $157 30d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $157 30d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $142 30d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $142 31d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $174 31d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $174 31d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $175 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.99 · official $21.99 (match) · 359 history records