Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d0e…42cb world 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-3%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$3
other 11% −$9
sports 6% $0
economics 3% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 12 -1.2% -10.6% 17% 8% -10.4%
≤90d 12 -1.2% -10.6% 17% 8% -10.4%
all 20 -9.8% -18.4% 40% 5% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 5% -12.5%
10% -26.2% 0% -20.9%
15% -33.3% 0% -28.6%
20% -39.9% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage486d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 88¢ 88¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $38 −$2 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $35 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $27 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -11%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 19 $10 $0 +1%
Anderlecht vs. Fenerbahce Mar 04 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $33 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $3 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $30 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $33 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 2d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $2 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $32 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $32 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $31 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $32 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $5 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $5 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $1 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $26 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 34¢ $24 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 34¢ $3 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $40 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $40 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.25 · official $33.25 (match) · 51 history records