Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:26:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0D
0x0d0a…2d46
other · 129 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$396 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$363 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$513
Realized−$363
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses48 / 48
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions27
Markets (closed)96 / 129
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 27 History 96 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$32
14 days−$88
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $148 $143 −$5 (-4%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 54¢ 81¢ $54 $81 +$27 (+49%)
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $46 $49 +$3 (+6%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 47¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $38 $19 −$19 (-50%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 86¢ 81¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-10%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? No 86¢ 88¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 39¢ 19¢ $22 $10 −$11 (-51%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 32¢ 15¢ $16 $8 −$8 (-52%)
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? No 82¢ 81¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-49%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-57%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? No 52¢ 51¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $250 +$63 +25%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $125 −$121 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$3 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $82 −$21 -25%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $71 +$6 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $17 +$33 +197%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $16 +$4 +24%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $5 +$15 +344%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 29 $7 −$5 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $182 +$118 +65%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $21 −$21 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 28 $6 −$6 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $31 −$30 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $54 +$11 +20%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day? May 14 $193 +$59 +31%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? May 10 $63 +$37 +59%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? May 10 $58 +$142 +245%
Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel Presi May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? May 10 $70 +$80 +113%
Will NVIDIA say "Tariff" during earnings call? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on Decemb May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands May 10 $1 $0 -42%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15? May 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on Decem May 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? May 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31? May 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Lighter FDV above $6B one day after launch? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Net May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
No airdrop in 2025? May 10 $152 −$52 -34%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? May 10 $16 −$16 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? May 10 $178 −$178 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee May 10 $36 −$36 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? May 10 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? May 10 $68 −$68 -100%
Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch? May 10 $104 −$104 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? May 10 $27 −$27 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? May 10 $394 −$386 -98%
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? May 10 $119 −$86 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% −$114
world 34% −$477
politics 13% +$387
sports 11% +$6
crypto 2% −$158
finance 2% −$10
economics 2% −$31
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 83¢ $149 9m
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $3 10m
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $22 14m
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $22 33m
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 82¢ $8 57m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 86¢ $13 1h
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $41 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United BUY 8¢ $5 3h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Canada vs. Bosnia and BUY 2¢ $5 3h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Scotla BUY 38¢ $5 3h
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will C BUY 6¢ $10 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ghana BUY 3¢ $10 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzeg BUY 9¢ $15 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 6h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 81¢ $17 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 81¢ $32 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 81¢ $13 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 81¢ $14 6h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 6h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +30.6% +18.2% 71% 57% -13.3%
≤30d 21 +1.3% -8.4% 52% 43% -8.4%
≤90d 51 -39.1% -44.9% 29% 24% -35.4%
all 96 -17.0% -24.9% 50% 29% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 29% -14.1%
10% -32.1% 21% -22.3%
15% -38.7% 17% -29.8%
20% -44.7% 14% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.54 · official $562.55 · 409 history records