Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:44:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d0a…0809 sports 939 markets active 1h ago coverage 745d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,525 (-4%) realized −$4,500 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%309W / 624L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$183est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$333
14 days−$1,235
30 days−$13,872
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$85
sports 28% −$2,329
other 25% −$2,863
world 1% +$28
crypto 1% −$186
economics 1% −$147
tech 1% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -41.0% -46.6% 23% 18% -38.2%
≤30d 307 -49.5% -54.4% 18% 17% -69.6%
≤90d 353 -45.3% -50.6% 20% 20% -63.5%
all 933 -10.2% -18.8% 33% 32% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 32% -14.2%
10% -26.5% 32% -22.4%
15% -33.6% 31% -29.9%
20% -40.1% 29% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$51 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

745d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$4,500
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses309 / 624
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$183
Open positions4
Markets (closed)933 / 939
History coverage745d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 933 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $102 $82 −$20 (-20%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $10 −$1 (-11%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 428 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $33 −$14 -43%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $31 +$56 +180%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $36 +$64 +180%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 +$62 +60%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $91 +$1 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $88 −$6 -7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$79 +129%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $162 −$160 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $42 −$10 -24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $45 +$55 +122%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $40 −$39 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $81 −$31 -38%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $36 −$35 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $132 −$49 -37%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $99 −$97 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $57 −$56 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 07 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $66 −$34 -52%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $26 +$29 +108%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $71 −$70 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $35 +$65 +188%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $56 −$10 -18%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $35 −$34 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $22 −$21 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $33 +$60 +185%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $35 −$34 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 19¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 32¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 16h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 17h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 88¢ $88 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $19 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $13 19h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Sco BUY 7¢ $19 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $36 25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 45h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 45h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $26 45h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $165 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $103 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 52¢ $34 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 52¢ $34 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.60 · official $110.60 (match) · 2342 history records