Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
0D 0x0d08…e57a other 4 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$24 (+13%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$10
sports 17% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.6% +0.1% 75% 75% +2.1%
≤30d 4 +10.6% +0.1% 75% 75% +2.1%
≤90d 4 +10.6% +0.1% 75% 75% +2.1%
all 4 +10.6% +0.1% 75% 75% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 75% +2.1%
10% -9.5% 25% -7.7%
15% -18.3% 25% -16.6%
20% -26.3% 25% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$30 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $60 +$10 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $60 +$10 +17%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $60 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records