Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0D 0x0d08…8b24 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$150 (-9%) realized −$42 · open −$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$1,326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$237
sports 9% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.7% -0.8% 50% 50% -36.6%
≤30d 2 +9.7% -0.8% 50% 50% -36.6%
≤90d 2 +9.7% -0.8% 50% 50% -36.6%
all 2 +9.7% -0.8% 50% 50% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 50% -36.6%
10% -10.3% 50% -42.7%
15% -18.9% 50% -48.2%
20% -26.9% 50% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$106 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,326
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)2 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $502 $496 −$6 (-1%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $250 $225 −$25 (-10%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $183 −$17 (-8%)
World Cup Goal Contributions H2H: Vitinha vs. Pedri Vitinha 54¢ 67¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Will Harry Kane record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $146 $102 −$45 (-30%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $69 $73 +$4 (+6%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $66 $55 −$11 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $51 +$54 +105%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $123 −$106 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 15¢ $30 48m
Will Harry Kane record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 23¢ $24 58m
Will Harry Kane record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 22¢ $6 58m
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $105 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 4h
Will Harry Kane record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 20¢ $13 7h
Will Harry Kane record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 20¢ $2 10h
Will Harry Kane record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 20¢ $2 10h
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 15¢ $12 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 12h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 12h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $257 12h
Will Harry Kane record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 28¢ $102 12h
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 15¢ $1 13h
World Cup Goal Contributions H2H: Vitinha vs. Pedri BUY Vitinha 54¢ $101 13h
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 15¢ $25 13h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 80¢ $105 14h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 14h
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 36h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $68 36h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL Yes 7¢ $17 38h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $123 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,326.16 · official $1,323.33 (match) · 24 history records