Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:09:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d03…46e6 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,139 (-9%) realized −$1,139 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate76%19W / 6L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$481per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$1,128
crypto 13% +$2
other 2% −$17
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 -6.2% -15.2% 88% 25% -22.8%
all 25 -3.4% -12.6% 76% 28% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 28% -17.6%
10% -21.0% 16% -25.4%
15% -28.6% 12% -32.6%
20% -35.6% 12% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$995) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$489 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$1,139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses19 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage197d
Avg bet$481
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $75 $0 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $333 −$326 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $259 +$75 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 14 $218 +$42 +19%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $217 $0 +0%
Spread: Celtics (-4.5) Apr 08 $214 +$3 +1%
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers Mar 30 $56 $0 +0%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 28 $1,745 −$1,745 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Feb 27 $1,756 +$45 +3%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 24 $1,756 $0 +0%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Feb 17 $62 +$38 +61%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 17 $1,054 +$602 +57%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Feb 14 $700 +$133 +19%
Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 05 $19 −$19 -100%
76ers vs. Warriors Feb 05 $151 +$193 +127%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Feb 02 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jan 31 $1,162 −$273 -24%
Celtics vs. Nets Jan 24 $996 +$167 +17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 9? Jan 10 $995 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $36 $0 +1%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $37 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 02 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 02 $139 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $715 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $76 1h
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $36 28d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 28d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY Weibo Gaming 32¢ $333 32d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 77¢ $259 42d
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $218 43d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $217 66d
Spread: Celtics (-4.5) BUY Celtics 99¢ $214 78d
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 100¢ $56 87d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 53¢ $1,457 116d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 53¢ $3 116d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 53¢ $2 116d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 53¢ $76 116d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 52¢ $208 116d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 97¢ $1,756 118d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL JD Gaming 60¢ $1,756 121d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 60¢ $1,756 121d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Movistar KOI 63¢ $687 130d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 62¢ $62 130d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Movistar KOI 65¢ $367 130d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner BUY DN Freecs 24¢ $200 133d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 60¢ $500 133d
Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes $6 140d
Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes $13 140d
76ers vs. Warriors BUY 76ers 44¢ $2 142d
76ers vs. Warriors BUY 76ers 44¢ $4 142d
76ers vs. Warriors BUY 76ers 44¢ $2 142d
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies BUY Timberwolves 69¢ $81 142d
76ers vs. Warriors BUY 76ers 44¢ $2 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.79 · official $110.79 (match) · 69 history records