Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cff…15d1 other 841 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$440 (-1%) realized −$438 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%397W / 442L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$227
14 days−$377
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$154
sports 37% −$526
finance 2% +$1
world 2% +$50
politics 1% −$53
crypto 1% −$80
weather 0% −$34
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -57.5% -61.6% 27% 27% -49.0%
≤30d 40 -11.6% -20.0% 48% 45% -19.3%
≤90d 254 -6.7% -15.6% 47% 41% -14.3%
all 839 -4.6% -13.6% 47% 43% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 43% -10.4%
10% -21.9% 38% -19.0%
15% -29.5% 34% -26.8%
20% -36.4% 30% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$48 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$438
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses397 / 442
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions2
Markets (closed)839 / 841
History coverage230d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 839 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 55¢ 54¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $56 +$36 +65%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $63 +$37 +59%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $71 +$31 +44%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $62 +$38 +61%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $55 +$5 +9%
Spread: Cayman Islands (-1.5) Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $59 +$41 +70%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $56 +$44 +79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $36 +$64 +178%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $28 +$16 +57%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $22 +$8 +38%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $100 +$100 +100%
Spread: Málaga CF (-1.5) Jun 01 $38 +$115 +300%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo May 30 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5) May 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 28 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Nice (-1.5) May 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5) May 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $53 +$47 +89%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $54 +$46 +85%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $33 +$67 +203%
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5) May 23 $48 +$35 +73%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $65 +$35 +54%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $36 +$14 +37%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $36 +$14 +37%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier P May 16 $92 +$31 +34%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $85 +$7 +9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $61 +$24 +40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $40 +$60 +150%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $68 −$68 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz Basilashvili May 13 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 4¢ $31 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $56 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $52 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $63 3d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Qatar 1¢ $21 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $71 5d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $62 8d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 59¢ $59 8d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 61¢ $60 9d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 55¢ $45 9d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 55¢ $8 10d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 10d
Spread: Cayman Islands (-1.5) BUY Cayman Islands 1¢ $10 11d
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $56 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $37 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 77¢ $38 12d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 50¢ $80 12d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 62¢ $62 14d
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 14d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 14d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 14d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.18 · official $98.18 (match) · 2373 history records