Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cf6…0e3b sports 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,292 (+2%) realized −$360 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate53%121W / 108L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day169.2pace
Fees−$932est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$484
7 days−$158
14 days+$537
30 days−$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$31
other 41% +$193
world 1% +$13
crypto 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +61.4% +46.0% 51% 17% -9.8%
≤30d 229 +57.7% +42.6% 53% 20% -9.8%
≤90d 229 +57.7% +42.6% 53% 20% -9.8%
all 229 +57.7% +42.6% 53% 20% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.6% 20% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here +29.0% 17% -18.5%
15% +16.5% 15% -26.3%
20% +5.1% 12% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +57% → late +58% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$35 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$360
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses121 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$932
Open positions0
Markets (closed)229 / 222
History coverage20d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day169.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Hashiras 11¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs NRG 23¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Group C RUSTEC 70¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Will Philippines vs. Myanmar end in a draw? Yes $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Under 23¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Mexico vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Under 12¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Under 23¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Finals Playoffs Nemiga 55¢ $321 $0 −$321 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 2007 vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Group C ex-Zero Tenacity $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage Phantom 57¢ $316 $0 −$316 (-100%)
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Yes 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-05-29? No 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Club Blooming vs. Carabobo FC end in a draw? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball end in a draw? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage SPARTA 55¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Donstu Esports 10¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-08? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Yes $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 10¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-30? Yes $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Lavked 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs Jun 14 $94 −$234 -250%
Will Club Blooming vs. Carabobo FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Jun 14 $50 −$47 -96%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 14 $1 −$2 -250%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-05-21? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Jun 14 $50 −$45 -90%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Jun 14 $253 −$252 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $668 −$15 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $360 −$19 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $84 −$18 -22%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $250 +$25 +10%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $36 +$14 +38%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,453 +$12 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $37 −$12 -33%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $36 +$26 +70%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $677 −$4 -1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $360 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,324 +$27 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $480 +$9 +2%
Will FF Jaro vs. HJK Helsinki end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$5 +389%
Will Tampereen Ilves win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +231%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $142 −$8 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $105 −$24 -23%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $660 +$18 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,983 +$65 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $301 +$16 +5%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,066 −$4 -0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $49 +$24 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $246 −$4 -2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $79 +$13 +17%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $551 +$10 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$3 -4%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $400 +$26 +6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $24 +$13 +54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $120 +$7 +6%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,077 +$651 +60%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $38 +$19 +50%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $119 +$7 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $283 +$22 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $962 +$15 +2%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 11 $2 $0 -19%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $47 +$7 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $481 +$4 +1%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $350 −$70 -20%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $388 −$75 -19%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $62 −$59 -95%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $124 −$122 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $2 54m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $3 54m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $6 54m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 92¢ $112 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 92¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 92¢ $228 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 84¢ $39 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 97¢ $347 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 97¢ $14 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $12 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $12 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $246 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $274 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $240 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $21 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $93 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $107 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $12 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $12 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $12 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 36¢ $17 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $12 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $12 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records