Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0C 0x0cf5…b8ef sports 753 markets active 2d ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$431 (-5%) realized −$406 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%368W / 371L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$44
14 days+$25
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$408
other 10% −$96
world 2% +$43
crypto 0% −$24
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +47.7% +33.6% 60% 50% +26.6%
≤30d 46 +20.0% +8.6% 59% 54% +4.8%
≤90d 413 -1.1% -10.5% 53% 50% -10.4%
all 739 -6.3% -15.3% 50% 47% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 47% -14.4%
10% -23.4% 44% -22.6%
15% -30.8% 40% -30.1%
20% -37.6% 37% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$406
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses368 / 371
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions14
Markets (closed)739 / 753
History coverage114d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 739 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $9 $26 +$17 (+188%)
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-35%)
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+22%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $18 $8 −$10 (-58%)
Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-38%)
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-45%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 39¢ 14¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-63%)
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Minnesota Twins win the 2026 AL Central title? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-80%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 43¢ 37¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $18 +$18 +99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$38 +414%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $9 +$5 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$15 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $9 +$12 +134%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $9 +$6 +67%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $9 +$8 +83%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $9 +$11 +119%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $8 +$15 +188%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $9 +$6 +70%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $9 +$11 +124%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $31 +$4 +12%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $4 +$3 +70%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $9 +$10 +114%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $7 +$4 +62%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 28 $9 −$9 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $7 +$4 +67%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $9 +$7 +79%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $3 +$2 +86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $9 +$10 +114%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 25 $2 +$3 +134%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $9 +$7 +73%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 24 $9 +$7 +79%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $9 +$13 +146%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $9 +$11 +119%
Will David Njoku play for Los Angeles Chargers in 2026-27? May 22 $9 $0 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $8 +$13 +158%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 31¢ $6 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $9 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $21 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 6d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY San Diego Padres 35¢ $9 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $9 14d
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 15d
Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 15d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 59¢ $9 15d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Colorado Rockies 42¢ $9 15d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $9 15d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 69¢ $9 15d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Baltimore Orioles 45¢ $9 15d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $9 15d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $8 16d
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Chicago White Sox 41¢ $9 16d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $9 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.77 · official $106.55 (match) · 2221 history records