Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:48:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cf4…62f6 crypto 451 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$997 (-6%) realized −$997 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate50%225W / 226L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$223
30 days−$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$692
other 5% −$336
finance 1% +$6
world 1% −$10
politics 0% −$3
economics 0% −$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +37.2% +24.2% 67% 67% -9.4%
≤30d 22 +10.4% -0.1% 59% 45% -27.0%
≤90d 198 -6.0% -14.9% 43% 30% -19.8%
all 451 -10.0% -18.5% 50% 27% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 27% -15.0%
10% -26.3% 21% -23.2%
15% -33.4% 17% -30.6%
20% -40.0% 14% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$997
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses225 / 226
Open positions0
Markets (closed)451 / 451
History coverage205d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 451 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +100%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $102 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $229 −$229 -100%
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? Jun 01 $358 −$140 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$10 +105%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $137 +$6 +4%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $421 −$147 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $524 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2AM ET May 30 $100 +$80 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1AM ET May 30 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8PM ET May 25 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7PM ET May 24 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3AM ET May 22 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6AM ET May 22 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1AM ET May 22 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11PM ET May 22 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9PM ET May 22 $100 −$64 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7PM ET May 22 $34 +$34 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11AM ET May 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12AM ET May 18 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 16 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 16 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 16 $12 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 16 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 16 $15 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 16 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 16 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 16 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 16 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 16 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 16 $5 −$2 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 38m
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $98 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $52 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $44 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $40 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $38 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $36 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2601 history records