Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:20:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

0C 0x0cf3…3506 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate86%6W / 1L

Drawdown19%max

Avg bet$168per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)-8.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+1.3%	-8.3%	86%	57%	+0.8%
≤30d	7	+1.3%	-8.3%	86%	57%	+0.8%
≤90d	7	+1.3%	-8.3%	86%	57%	+0.8%
all	7	+1.3%	-8.3%	86%	57%	+0.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.3%	57%	+0.8%
10%	-17.1%	29%	-8.9%
15%	-25.1%	29%	-17.7%
20%	-32.5%	0%	-25.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 75% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$25 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×6.34 per $1 lost it wins $6.34

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$27

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses6 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)7 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$168

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown19%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 7 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Jun 21	$303	+$40	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 21	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$11	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 21	$204	+$78	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Jun 21	$200	+$3	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Jun 21	$200	+$3	+1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$216	+$23	+11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$101	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$101	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$101	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$26	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$101	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$103	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$100	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$100	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$100	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$100	2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$239	2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$216	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records