Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cf2…f9a0 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$270 (-12%) realized −$270 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate45%23W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$73
14 days−$73
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$339
politics 35% $0
other 6% $0
sports 2% −$4
culture 1% $0
world 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -15.2% -23.3% 44% 39% -22.7%
≤30d 18 -15.2% -23.3% 44% 39% -22.7%
≤90d 22 -21.0% -28.5% 41% 36% -22.5%
all 51 -21.5% -29.0% 45% 24% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 24% -23.5%
10% -35.8% 22% -30.8%
15% -42.0% 22% -37.5%
20% -47.7% 22% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$25 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses23 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage547d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +88%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$22 +84%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$21 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$16 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$16 +76%
Bengaluru 2: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Sasikumar Mukund May 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $11 +$2 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? May 03 $10 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 11 $58 −$57 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 11 $30 +$28 +94%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 11 $60 −$59 -99%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 11 $48 +$42 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 11 $30 −$30 -99%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 11 $50 +$41 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 11 $64 −$64 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 11 $65 −$65 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 11 $64 −$64 -99%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 11 $64 −$64 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this Mar 10 $17 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - December 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Dec 12 $108 +$104 +96%
Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown? Dec 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island? Nov 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Robinhood say "Expense" during earnings call? Nov 11 $15 $0 +2%
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history? Nov 03 $15 $0 -0%
Which party wins Virginia House of Delegates? Nov 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings? Oct 13 $16 −$2 -10%
Will the U.S. national debt hit $37 trillion in 2025? Sep 01 $16 $0 +1%
Plasma >$800M market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 14 $16 $0 -0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 17? Jul 01 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Trzaskowski or Nawrocki win the diaspora vote? Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 15 $9 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $746 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $23 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $32 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.94 · official $7.94 (match) · 127 history records