Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:23:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

0C 0x0cee…4191 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$131 (+9%) realized +$131 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate65%17W / 9L

Drawdown83%max

Avg bet$55per market

Trades / day3.9pace

Fees−$15est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)-5.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	26	+5.1%	-5.0%	65%	65%	-2.6%
≤30d	26	+5.1%	-5.0%	65%	65%	-2.6%
≤90d	26	+5.1%	-5.0%	65%	65%	-2.6%
all	26	+5.1%	-5.0%	65%	65%	-2.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.0%	65%	-2.6%
10%	-14.0%	54%	-11.9%
15%	-22.4%	46%	-20.4%
20%	-30.0%	38%	-28.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +18% → late -8% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$54 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.22 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$131

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses17 / 9

Est. fees paid−$15

Open positions0

Markets (closed)26 / 26

History coverage7d

Avg bet$55

Trades / day3.9

Drawdown83%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 26 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$47	+$43	+92%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Jun 23	$42	−$42	-100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$65	+$24	+37%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 22	$40	+$25	+64%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$50	−$50	-100%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$63	−$63	-100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$159	−$159	-100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$53	+$14	+27%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$71	+$61	+85%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	Jun 22	$84	−$84	-100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$76	+$25	+33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$106	+$44	+41%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$51	+$10	+19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$53	+$38	+72%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$102	+$68	+67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$95	+$137	+144%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 20	$6	−$6	-100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$36	−$36	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$50	+$52	+104%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$48	+$6	+13%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$33	−$33	-100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$29	+$17	+59%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$23	+$4	+16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$24	+$18	+75%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$8	+$7	+82%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	25¢	$42	1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$47	2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	72¢	$65	3h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	34¢	$63	15h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$50	15h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	60¢	$40	15h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$159	27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	38¢	$84	35h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	53¢	$71	37h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	78¢	$53	37h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	74¢	$76	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$106	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	40¢	$95	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	59¢	$102	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	83¢	$51	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$53	2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$36	3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$6	3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	88¢	$48	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$50	4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$33	4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	62¢	$29	5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	85¢	$23	6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	56¢	$24	6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$8	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records