Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:59:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cee…e1a9 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$178 (-19%) realized −$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$181
politics 24% +$1
world 20% +$1
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% +$1
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 17% -8.9%
≤90d 6 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 17% -8.9%
all 49 -1.5% -10.9% 35% 4% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 4% -26.9%
10% -19.4% 0% -33.9%
15% -27.2% 0% -40.3%
20% -34.3% 0% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage323d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $16 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $2 $0 +18%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $18 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 16 $23 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 11 $180 −$180 -100%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 22 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $6 $0 +8%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 25 $1 $0 -13%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $2 $0 -10%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 21 $10 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the most votes in the first round of the Aug 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Aug 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Aug 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Aug 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 04 $3 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 04 $58 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $45 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $45 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 39¢ $16 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 5¢ $2 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $2 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $2 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $18 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $43 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $43 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $39 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $39 28d
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? SELL No 99¢ $24 99d
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? BUY No 97¢ $23 99d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $56 104d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $121 104d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 104d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 181d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $47 182d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 266d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 266d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 266d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 266d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $6 266d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 90¢ $10 267d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 267d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 267d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 267d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 267d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records