Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:41:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0cea…b2db other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,496 (-2%) realized −$1,496 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%8W / 68L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$906per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$13
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$1,606
politics 37% −$32
world 7% −$5
sports 3% +$111
crypto 2% +$3
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 28 +6.1% -4.0% 14% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 76 +1.0% -8.6% 11% 7% -11.5%
all 76 +1.0% -8.6% 11% 7% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 7% -11.5%
10% -17.4% 7% -20.0%
15% -25.4% 7% -27.7%
20% -32.7% 5% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,376) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$25 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,496
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses8 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage77d
Avg bet$906
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $268 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,590 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,194 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,592 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $234 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 04 $380 +$1 +0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $728 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $290 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $3,804 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $1,122 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,505 −$3 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $810 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $29 +$13 +46%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 20 $32 +$41 +129%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $596 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $599 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 19 $34 +$43 +129%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $363 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $342 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $330 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $246 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 15 $359 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $307 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $1,807 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $305 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $253 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 12 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $326 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $328 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $315 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $347 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $407 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $268 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $268 3h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $718 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $719 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $649 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $650 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $740 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $741 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $890 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $891 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $778 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $779 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $794 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $795 11d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $963 11d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $964 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $800 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $801 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $816 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $817 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $833 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $834 13d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $755 13d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $756 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $400 17d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $401 17d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $350 20d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $350 20d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $289 20d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $290 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 241 history records