Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0C 0x0ce8…22ad other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-2%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$49
politics 24% +$29
crypto 7% −$75
finance 5% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -19.0% -26.7% 0% 0% -26.7%
≤30d 1 -19.0% -26.7% 0% 0% -26.7%
≤90d 10 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 20% -14.1%
all 10 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 20% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 20% -14.1%
10% -21.2% 10% -22.3%
15% -28.8% 0% -29.8%
20% -35.8% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$27 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage64d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $239 −$45 -19%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $358 −$7 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 13 $179 +$14 +8%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $95 +$7 +7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $140 −$9 -6%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $134 +$5 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 26 $114 −$75 -66%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 23 $89 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $100 +$15 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 22 $80 +$18 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $161 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $206 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $229 30d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $234 33d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $33 33d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 61¢ $72 33d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $51 40d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $51 41d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $123 43d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $131 43d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $140 48d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 32¢ $140 49d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $124 50d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? SELL Yes $39 51d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $89 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes 12¢ $114 54d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $115 55d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $95 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? SELL Yes 51¢ $97 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? BUY Yes 41¢ $80 57d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 66¢ $80 57d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 65¢ $60 57d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 57d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 31¢ $133 58d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 58d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $89 60d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 66¢ $61 60d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 54¢ $99 63d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $100 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records