Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0C 0x0ce6…9469 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$66,676 (-67%) realized −$64,717 · open −$1,959
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,071per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63,642
7 days−$63,642
14 days−$63,642
30 days−$63,642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$63,642
other 18% −$6,167
world 10% +$7,850
sports 8% −$6,676
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 13 -32.4% -38.8% 23% 23% -71.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.8% 23% -71.7%
10% ← realistic here -44.7% 23% -74.4%
15% -50.0% 23% -76.9%
20% -54.9% 23% -79.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,292 vs −$7,655 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$64,717
Unrealized−$1,959
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage182d
Avg bet$7,071
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 46¢ 0¢ $1,961 $2 −$1,959 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Jun 21 $28,053 −$28,053 -100%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Jun 21 $35,589 −$35,589 -100%
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch Mar 30 $3,047 −$3,047 -100%
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $996 −$996 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $969 −$969 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Mar 22 $1,599 −$1,599 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Mar 02 $999 −$32 -3%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 28 $15,314 −$4,141 -27%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $5,500 +$3,806 +69%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $2,494 +$5,743 +230%
Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $2,040 −$2,025 -99%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $299 +$327 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $14 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $1,978 1h
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 59¢ $78 86d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $379 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $259 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $259 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $1 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $259 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $1 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $2 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $259 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $2 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $1 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $0 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $0 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $0 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $1 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $6 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $259 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $3 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $1 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $3 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $0 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $111 87d
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch BUY Tamara Korpatsch 27¢ $1,164 87d
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia BUY No 43¢ $4,816 90d
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia BUY No 43¢ $8,484 90d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 BUY Yes 44¢ $140 90d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 BUY Yes 44¢ $0 90d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 BUY Yes 44¢ $1 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.13 · official $2.13 (match) · 225 history records