Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0ce4…72a8 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$370 (-17%) realized −$370 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$88
other 19% −$265
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -11.0% -19.5% 33% 33% -24.4%
≤30d 18 -11.0% -19.5% 33% 33% -24.4%
≤90d 18 -11.0% -19.5% 33% 33% -24.4%
all 18 -11.0% -19.5% 33% 33% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 33% -24.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 33% -31.6%
15% -34.2% 28% -38.2%
20% -40.6% 28% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$107 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$370
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $218 −$200 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $110 −$100 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $59 −$56 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$338 +342%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $114 −$105 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $63 +$201 +318%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $301 +$237 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$30 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $139 −$130 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $107 −$100 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $108 +$86 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $54 +$38 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $91 +$27 +30%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $251 −$235 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $182 −$29 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $213 −$213 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $218 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $110 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $49 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $436 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $99 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $22 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $92 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $54 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $264 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $538 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $301 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $139 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $107 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $193 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $108 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $91 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $118 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $91 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 20¢ $152 19h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $201 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 0¢ $14 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 2¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 1¢ $7 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $3.98 · 36 history records