Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0C
0x0ce0…02a9
other · 73 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$20 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses26 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage467d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 3 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$21
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $61 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $128 −$18 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $164 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $62 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $80 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $80 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $63 −$10 -16%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Apr 23 $2 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $56 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $665 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $641 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $616 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $605 −$1 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $2 +$9 +545%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 19 $1 $0 +27%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 18 $1 $0 -15%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +39%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 11 $38 $0 -1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Dacian Cioloș? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Eva Copa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 08 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% +$43
politics 28% +$8
world 22% −$32
sports 13% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $55 14h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $55 17h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $2 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $35 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $37 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $61 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $61 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $44 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $8 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $11 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $41 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $52 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $54 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $54 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $54 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $53 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $55 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $56 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $10 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $46 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.9% -12.1% 0% 0% -15.3%
≤30d 13 -2.9% -12.2% 31% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 20 -2.4% -11.7% 25% 0% -10.4%
all 70 +15.4% +4.4% 37% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 6% -9.1%
10% -5.6% 6% -17.8%
15% -14.7% 4% -25.8%
20% -23.1% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.01 · official $3.75 · 250 history records