Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0C 0x0cdf…ec9e sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,427 (+35%) realized +$1,462 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$825per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,752now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,366
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +65.3% +49.6% 100% 100% +45.1%
≤30d 3 +65.3% +49.6% 100% 100% +45.1%
≤90d 3 +65.3% +49.6% 100% 100% +45.1%
all 3 +65.3% +49.6% 100% 100% +45.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +49.6% 100% +45.1%
10% ← realistic here +35.3% 100% +31.2%
15% +22.2% 67% +18.5%
20% +10.2% 67% +6.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$467 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,752
Realized+$1,462
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage4d
Avg bet$825
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewinkel Zeynep Sonmez 68¢ 66¢ $891 $878 −$14 (-2%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Selekhmeteva Kamilla Rakhimova 65¢ 64¢ $895 $874 −$21 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $1,003 +$271 +27%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $507 +$403 +79%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $812 +$728 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink BUY Zeynep Sonmez 69¢ $0 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink BUY Zeynep Sonmez 69¢ $6 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink BUY Zeynep Sonmez 69¢ $2 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink BUY Zeynep Sonmez 69¢ $11 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink BUY Zeynep Sonmez 69¢ $20 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink BUY Zeynep Sonmez 69¢ $94 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink BUY Zeynep Sonmez 69¢ $35 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink BUY Zeynep Sonmez 68¢ $409 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 66¢ $619 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 63¢ $9 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink BUY Zeynep Sonmez 66¢ $2 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink BUY Zeynep Sonmez 66¢ $2 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 64¢ $259 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink BUY Zeynep Sonmez 67¢ $271 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink BUY Zeynep Sonmez 66¢ $46 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 63¢ $17 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson SELL Karolina Pliskova 57¢ $34 23h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson SELL Karolina Pliskova 57¢ $403 23h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 61¢ $88 27h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 61¢ $19 27h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 61¢ $47 27h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 61¢ $140 27h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 61¢ $2 27h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 61¢ $2 27h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 61¢ $2 27h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 61¢ $23 27h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 61¢ $2 27h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 61¢ $8 27h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson SELL Karolina Pliskova 61¢ $22 27h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 61¢ $3 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,751.86 · official $1,751.86 (match) · 59 history records