Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:49:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cdd…41e4 crypto 1370 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%696W / 674L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$21
14 days+$28
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -3.8% -13.0% 49% 47% -3.0%
≤30d 729 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 48% -10.9%
≤90d 1370 -4.6% -13.7% 51% 48% -13.4%
all 1370 -4.6% -13.7% 51% 48% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 48% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 46% -21.7%
15% -29.5% 42% -29.3%
20% -36.4% 38% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses696 / 674
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1370 / 1370
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1370 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records