Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cd9…fcfe other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$253 (-21%) realized −$152 · open −$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%8W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$222
14 days−$217
30 days−$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$294
world 9% −$58
sports 9% +$47
crypto 6% −$7
tech 1% −$8
weather 1% −$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -52.7% -57.2% 7% 7% -41.8%
≤30d 62 -41.6% -47.1% 13% 13% -36.5%
≤90d 62 -41.6% -47.1% 13% 13% -36.5%
all 62 -41.6% -47.1% 13% 13% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.1% 13% -36.5%
10% -52.2% 13% -42.6%
15% -56.8% 11% -48.1%
20% -61.0% 11% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$10 · ×3.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$345
Realized−$152
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses8 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)62 / 71
History coverage23d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $319 $247 −$73 (-23%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Sweden? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $9 $16 +$6 (+65%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Sweden? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Neymar Jr: 2+ goals Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Spain? Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 −$6 -12%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $54 −$54 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $21 +$35 +170%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $26 +$163 +632%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $16 +$39 +248%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 25 $11 −$5 -46%
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 25 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Portugal win the World Cup? Jun 25 $21 −$7 -34%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $6 −$4 -73%
Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 23 $1 −$1 -83%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 23 $5 −$4 -78%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish Jun 23 $1 $0 -31%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $9 −$2 -20%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $7 −$3 -34%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $5 +$30 +574%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 21 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 2h
Neymar Jr: 2+ goals BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 2d
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $45 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 3d
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 3d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 60¢ $189 3d
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $21 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.86 · official $344.86 (match) · 174 history records