Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:19:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0C 0x0cd2…059f other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$187 (-20%) realized −$209 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$198
sports 5% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -31.0% -37.5% 33% 33% -39.1%
≤30d 3 -31.0% -37.5% 33% 33% -39.1%
≤90d 3 -31.0% -37.5% 33% 33% -39.1%
all 3 -31.0% -37.5% 33% 33% -39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.5% 33% -39.1%
10% -43.5% 33% -45.0%
15% -49.0% 33% -50.3%
20% -54.0% 0% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$110 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$335
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage55d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $312 $335 +$22 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $37 +$16 +44%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $576 −$210 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $91 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 40h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 42h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 46h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Panama vs. Croatia en BUY 22¢ $15 2d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 2d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 2d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 9¢ $92 2d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 69¢ $37 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 1¢ $47 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 3¢ $96 32d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 3¢ $31 32d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 3¢ $24 32d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 32d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 32d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 4¢ $24 32d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 32d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 6¢ $190 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.61 · official $334.61 (match) · 38 history records