Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0C 0x0cd1…cde5 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$39 (+6%) realized +$40 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +63.3% +47.8% 100% 100% +17.9%
≤30d 3 +63.3% +47.8% 100% 100% +17.9%
≤90d 3 +63.3% +47.8% 100% 100% +17.9%
all 3 +63.3% +47.8% 100% 100% +17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.8% 100% +17.9%
10% +33.6% 67% +6.6%
15% +20.7% 67% -3.7%
20% +8.9% 67% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$541
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $396 $394 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $146 $147 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$19 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 +$11 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$9 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $397 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $147 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $100 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $17 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $540.88 · official $540.88 (match) · 8 history records