Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0C 0x0cd0…c7e3 crypto 538 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$483 (-0%) realized −$483 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate88%472W / 65L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$14
14 days+$34
30 days−$674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$496
other 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.3% -9.2% 76% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 88 -1.4% -10.8% 81% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 302 -1.0% -10.4% 86% 0% -10.0%
all 537 -0.0% -9.6% 88% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$510) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$37 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$483
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses472 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)537 / 538
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$380
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 537 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Down 100¢ 100¢ $189 $190 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET Jun 23 $83 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET Jun 22 $187 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET Jun 22 $181 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET Jun 21 $182 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET Jun 20 $185 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Jun 19 $178 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $178 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $177 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $177 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $180 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $178 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET Jun 18 $356 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $176 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $175 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $139 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $174 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $173 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $172 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $170 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $166 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $330 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $164 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $164 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $162 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $162 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $161 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $160 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $160 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $158 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET Jun 10 $157 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 10 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 10 $216 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET Jun 10 $157 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10PM ET Jun 10 $156 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $122 +$1 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12AM ET Jun 08 $70 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8AM ET Jun 07 $154 +$1 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 5AM ET Jun 07 $154 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET Jun 07 $108 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9PM ET Jun 07 $152 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET Jun 07 $151 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6AM ET Jun 06 $151 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1AM ET Jun 05 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10PM ET Jun 05 $148 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11AM ET Jun 03 $147 +$1 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 03 $1 $0 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $189 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $70 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $101 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $40 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $40 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $94 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $96 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $126 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $171 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $182 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $182 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $82 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $98 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $58 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $23 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $178 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $170 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.75 · official $189.76 (match) · 3500 history records