Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:16:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cca…301c crypto 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$662 (-12%) realized −$662 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%63W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$43
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$242
crypto 41% −$405
sports 7% −$61
other 5% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -27.3% -34.2% 37% 32% -21.1%
≤30d 19 -27.3% -34.2% 37% 32% -21.1%
≤90d 60 -24.8% -32.0% 37% 32% -24.9%
all 156 -18.7% -26.4% 40% 35% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 35% -23.5%
10% -33.5% 32% -30.9%
15% -39.9% 28% -37.5%
20% -45.8% 24% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$662
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses63 / 93
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 161
History coverage131d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions (74 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $53 −$9 -17%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $42 +$6 +15%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $73 −$72 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 23 $70 +$3 +4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $37 +$52 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$20 +373%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 22 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 22 $60 +$50 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 22 $63 +$38 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 22 $74 −$10 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 22 $332 −$251 -76%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1,113 −$362 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 22 $5 −$1 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 22 $704 +$123 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $207 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 21 $5 −$5 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $227 +$13 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $140 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 20 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 20 $45 −$14 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 20 $17 +$17 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 20 $12 +$18 +155%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner Apr 19 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $20 +$26 +128%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Apr 19 $32 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $35 −$2 -7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $111 −$14 -13%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Apr 19 $61 +$22 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spai BUY 7¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 8¢ $12 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 85¢ $48 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $42 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 11¢ $42 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $48 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will BUY 2¢ $20 14h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 AND Wi BUY 11¢ $30 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $73 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $73 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Sco BUY 13¢ $4 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $70 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $25 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $5 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $40.79 · 363 history records