Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0C 0x0cca…700f sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$163 (+27%) realized +$171 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$137
14 days+$137
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$17
sports 40% +$115
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +93.9% +75.4% 75% 75% +46.6%
≤30d 9 +17.5% +6.3% 44% 44% +31.7%
≤90d 11 +10.8% +0.3% 45% 45% +29.2%
all 11 +10.8% +0.3% 45% 45% +29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 45% +29.2%
10% -9.3% 36% +16.8%
15% -18.1% 27% +5.5%
20% -26.1% 18% -4.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$11 · ×3.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$171
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage57d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $118 $113 −$5 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 24¢ 22¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 24¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $78 +$25 +32%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $25 +$100 +400%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $91 +$40 +44%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $45 +$42 +93%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 26 $23 −$23 -99%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $15 −$12 -82%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 20 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 10 $5 −$3 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $10 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $19 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $51 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $55 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $30 3d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $39 5d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $39 5d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 5d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $19 5d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $19 5d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 6d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $39 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $50 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 78¢ $28 14d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 80¢ $29 15d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 15d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 17d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $22 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 36¢ $10 21d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 36¢ $5 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 21d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 74¢ $9 21d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 74¢ $10 21d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 74¢ $3 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.17 · official $198.17 (match) · 70 history records