Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cc8…3909 world 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$2
other 22% +$1
politics 5% −$5
weather 3% −$4
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 13 -0.9% -10.3% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.9% -10.3% 38% 0% -9.7%
all 25 -5.5% -14.5% 44% 0% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -11.5%
10% -22.7% 0% -20.0%
15% -30.2% 0% -27.7%
20% -37.0% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage456d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $12 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $23 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $11 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $43 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $16 −$1 -7%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Dec 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 64-65°F on March 22? Mar 22 $14 −$4 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $27 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $16 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $42 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $39 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $19 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $19 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $39 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $11 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $27 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $37 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $16 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $21 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $11 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $37 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $37 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $23 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $23 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $9 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $11 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records