Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cc5…bdda world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% $0
other 17% $0
sports 10% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 67% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 11 -0.0% -9.6% 55% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.0% -9.6% 55% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -1.6% -11.0% 55% 5% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 5% -10.7%
10% -19.5% 5% -19.2%
15% -27.3% 5% -27.0%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage486d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $41 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $42 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $38 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 23 $4 $0 -0%
Missouri State vs. Illinois State Mar 05 $15 −$11 -75%
Oral Roberts vs. UMKC Mar 05 $14 +$1 +6%
Niagara vs. Saint Peter's Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
FCSB vs. PAOK Mar 05 $10 +$4 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $42 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $41 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $13 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $25 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 37h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $31 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $31 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $27 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $42 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $29 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $9 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $38 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $7 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $31 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $10 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $10 19d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $38 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records