Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0C 0x0cbf…4665 world 165 markets active 23h ago coverage 418d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$24,708 (+7%) realized +$24,636 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%78W / 85L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$2,232per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,746now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$361
7 days+$95
14 days+$1,178
30 days−$2,635
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% +$25,900
other 1% +$140
politics 1% −$639
sports 1% −$40
finance 0% −$417
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -14.3% -22.5% 33% 33% -5.8%
≤30d 10 -20.4% -28.0% 30% 30% -30.7%
≤90d 29 -2.9% -12.2% 34% 34% -10.1%
all 163 +1.7% -8.0% 48% 36% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 36% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 28% -12.5%
15% -24.8% 23% -21.0%
20% -32.2% 17% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,372) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,179 vs −$799 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

418d coverage
Net worth$1,746
Realized+$24,636
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses78 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)163 / 165
History coverage418d
Avg bet$2,232
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1,150 $1,100 −$50 (-4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Yes 35¢ 44¢ $524 $646 +$122 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, Jun 28 $502 −$361 -72%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 26 $248 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 26 $1,579 +$455 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $1,372 −$305 -22%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $1,587 +$297 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,331 +$1,091 +82%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $9 −$1 -9%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Jun 12 $25 −$16 -66%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $2,811 −$2,277 -81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $1,805 −$1,519 -84%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 25 $495 −$488 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $9,731 +$1,489 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $1,834 −$796 -43%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? May 07 $327 −$204 -62%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $152 −$58 -38%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 26 $270 −$70 -26%
Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $2,155 −$1,823 -85%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 24 $170 −$130 -76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $5,100 −$1,366 -27%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 16 $808 +$261 +32%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $4,437 +$1,748 +39%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $652 −$652 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $200 +$200 +100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 09 $230 +$1,208 +525%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 09 $1,622 +$2,933 +181%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Apr 06 $50 +$70 +141%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 20 $90 +$66 +74%
Israel strikes 3 different countries by September 30? Mar 20 $3,363 −$2,681 -80%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? Mar 20 $8,800 −$5,088 -58%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Mar 20 $6,576 −$4,297 -65%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? Mar 20 $6,894 −$4,714 -68%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Mar 20 $9,154 −$3,804 -42%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 20 $497 −$497 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 20 $539 −$539 -100%
Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? Mar 20 $28,586 −$20,385 -71%
Will Miami win the 2025 ACC Conference Championship Game? Mar 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Miami Hurricanes be the #9 seed in the 2025-2026 College Foot Mar 20 $0 $0 -100%
Miami vs. SMU Mustangs Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Twins vs. Blue Jays Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Phillies vs. Mets Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Carson Beck win the Heisman Trophy? Mar 20 $40 −$1 -2%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Mar 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers make the playoffs? Mar 20 $89 −$87 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $141 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, SELL Yes 6¢ $142 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, BUY Yes 27¢ $248 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $248 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $587 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $211 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $798 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $313 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $150 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $272 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $456 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, BUY Yes 21¢ $174 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, BUY Yes 14¢ $12 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $248 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, BUY Yes 12¢ $69 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $780 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $579 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,000 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $1,067 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 87¢ $512 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $797 12d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 78¢ $782 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $575 12d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 79¢ $590 12d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,587 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,580 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 21¢ $8 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $9 15d
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $190 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,746.05 · official $1,746.05 (match) · 1251 history records