Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0C 0x0cbb…f8a3 sports 521 markets active 1h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+0%) realized +$54 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%247W / 273L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1,040est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$320
7 days−$9,112
14 days−$7,418
30 days−$2,242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$336
other 9% −$396
crypto 6% −$831
culture 5% −$419
politics 5% +$615
world 0% −$56
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -66.7% -69.9% 0% 0% -62.3%
≤30d 58 -6.6% -15.5% 38% 38% -14.6%
≤90d 84 -4.4% -13.5% 40% 40% +2.5%
all 520 -5.9% -14.9% 48% 39% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 39% -10.3%
10% -23.0% 36% -18.9%
15% -30.4% 31% -26.8%
20% -37.3% 27% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$161 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$692
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses247 / 273
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1,040
Open positions1
Markets (closed)520 / 521
History coverage369d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 520 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Over 35¢ 36¢ $673 $692 +$19 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $327 −$320 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,036 −$405 -20%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $7,035 −$3,017 -43%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $796 −$796 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $299 −$7 -2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $124 −$124 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $2,132 −$2,132 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $2,199 −$2,199 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $588 −$10 -2%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $3,995 +$1,671 +42%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $861 −$539 -63%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $1,202 +$819 +68%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $1,466 −$258 -18%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 01 $117 −$19 -16%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $132 −$132 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 01 $101 +$44 +44%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $506 +$930 +184%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $112 +$98 +88%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 31 $51 +$45 +89%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) May 31 $101 +$65 +64%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) May 31 $46 −$22 -48%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 31 $89 −$82 -91%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $44 −$44 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 31 $41 −$41 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $509 +$642 +126%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $251 −$62 -25%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $1,573 +$1,495 +95%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $28 +$8 +30%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $41 +$8 +19%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $116 −$116 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $604 −$604 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 30 $114 +$133 +116%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $103 +$96 +93%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $94 −$94 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 29 $514 +$596 +116%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) May 28 $169 +$31 +18%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) May 28 $102 +$89 +88%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 28 $827 −$827 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 28 $874 −$874 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 28 $200 −$83 -41%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 28 $1,061 +$1,136 +107%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $508 −$439 -87%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 May 24 $161 −$41 -26%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 24 $205 −$31 -15%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 May 24 $176 +$137 +78%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 24 $291 +$98 +34%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $704 +$1,888 +268%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 23 $394 −$15 -4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 23 $254 −$13 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $686 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $327 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,435 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,171 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1,166 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $4,799 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $2,852 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2,236 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $196 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $866 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 15¢ $129 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $668 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $291 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $512 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $66 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $284 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $299 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $304 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 70¢ $3,995 7d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $2,132 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 22¢ $879 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 36¢ $1,320 8d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 11¢ $322 8d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 28¢ $861 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $890 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $164 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $239 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Milwaukee Brewers 63¢ $329 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $83 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 21¢ $496 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $692.23 · official $692.23 (match) · 1636 history records