Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:49:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cbb…c026 politics 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$1
world 25% −$3
other 17% −$4
crypto 17% $0
finance 3% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 7 -3.7% -12.9% 14% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 9 -1.6% -10.9% 22% 11% -11.4%
all 25 -2.4% -11.7% 36% 4% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 4% -10.5%
10% -20.1% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.9% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage303d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $1 $0 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $23 −$2 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $2 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $19 −$2 -10%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $2 $0 +12%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $7 −$4 -53%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 24 $3 $0 -3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Dec 20 $14 $0 +3%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $1 $0 +3%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 19 $5 $0 -2%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 19 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $43 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $21 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $23 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $5 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $33 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $38 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $32 86d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 176d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $14 180d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 203d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 203d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 70¢ $4 204d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 70¢ $4 204d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $32 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records