Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:19:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cb4…f4b6 crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%43W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$8
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +3.4% -6.4% 58% 55% -10.2%
≤30d 76 +3.5% -6.3% 57% 54% -11.4%
≤90d 76 +3.5% -6.3% 57% 54% -11.4%
all 76 +3.5% -6.3% 57% 54% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 54% -11.4%
10% -15.3% 51% -19.9%
15% -23.5% 47% -27.6%
20% -31.0% 43% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses43 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage7d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 34¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 34¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.22 (match) · 154 history records