Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0C 0x0cb3…32e6 crypto 351 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,709 (-7%) realized −$3,695 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%77W / 273L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$10,903
world 6% +$394
other 1% +$138
sports 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-59.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -62.5% -66.1% 25% 25% +9.9%
≤30d 72 -76.7% -79.0% 8% 8% -64.0%
≤90d 350 -54.7% -59.0% 22% 21% -29.5%
all 350 -54.7% -59.0% 22% 21% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.0% 21% -29.5%
10% ← realistic here -62.9% 18% -36.3%
15% -66.5% 17% -42.4%
20% -69.8% 15% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -40% → late -69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$79 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$3,695
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses77 / 273
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)350 / 351
History coverage57d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $75 $61 −$14 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 252 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$34 -95%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$151 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 19 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 19 $642 −$625 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 19 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 19 $185 −$29 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 19 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 19 $103 −$75 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 19 $52 +$52 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 19 $54 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 19 $388 −$25 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 19 $204 +$189 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 19 $229 −$15 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 19 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 19 $240 −$160 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 19 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 19 $54 −$52 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 19 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 19 $58 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 19 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 19 $59 −$56 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 19 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 19 $39 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 19 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 19 $270 −$160 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 18 $166 −$160 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 18 $197 −$113 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 18 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 18 $81 −$27 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 18 $158 −$100 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 18 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 18 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 18 $162 −$125 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 18 $39 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 18 $135 −$104 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 18 $226 +$450 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 18 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 18 $222 −$218 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $18 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $18 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $513 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $78 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $156 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.17 · official $61.17 (match) · 1269 history records