Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

0C 0x0cb1…9f20 sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$672 (-82%) realized −$672 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -93% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -94% what you keep after slip

Net edge-94%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$137per market

Trades / day13.3pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-94.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-93.4%	-94.1%	0%	0%	-98.0%
≤30d	5	-93.4%	-94.1%	0%	0%	-98.0%
≤90d	5	-93.4%	-94.1%	0%	0%	-98.0%
all	5	-93.4%	-94.1%	0%	0%	-98.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-94.1%	0%	-98.0%
10%	-94.6%	0%	-98.2%
15%	-95.2%	0%	-98.4%
20%	-95.6%	0%	-98.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -98% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -93% · $-wt -98% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$147 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized−$672

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 5

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$137

Trades / day13.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$51	−$50	-97%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals	Jun 19	$51	−$34	-67%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 19	$205	−$200	-97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$359	−$350	-97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$103	−$100	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$51	11m
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	3¢	$51	2h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	16¢	$17	2h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	47¢	$51	3h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	5¢	$51	19h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$51	19h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	19h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	3¢	$51	19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	20¢	$102	21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	23¢	$51	21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	13¢	$103	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.68 · official $49.68 (match) · 15 history records