Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0cb1…a76c politics 504 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$84,569 (+20%) realized +$89,404 · open −$4,835
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%195W / 362L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$824per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$84,774now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% +$1,298
crypto 34% +$1,115
world 13% +$1,277
other 2% +$1,364
sports 1% −$58
finance 0% −$26
tech 0% −$189
culture 0% −$110
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 -27.1% -34.0% 20% 17% -3.9%
≤30d 338 -0.8% -10.3% 26% 21% -8.3%
≤90d 557 +19.2% +7.9% 35% 27% -6.4%
all 557 +19.2% +7.9% 35% 27% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.9% 27% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -2.5% 24% -15.4%
15% -11.9% 21% -23.6%
20% -20.5% 19% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$32 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$84,774
Realized+$89,404
Unrealized−$4,835
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses195 / 362
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions102
Markets (closed)557 / 504
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$824
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 102 History 557 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 58¢ $35,500 $41,535 +$6,035 (+17%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 42¢ $35,500 $29,465 −$6,035 (-17%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 50¢ $1,164 $1,937 +$773 (+66%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 63¢ 76¢ $948 $1,138 +$190 (+20%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 98¢ $860 $976 +$116 (+13%)
Will Curacao reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $917 $920 +$4 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $593 $551 −$42 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $616 $546 −$70 (-11%)
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes 16¢ 62¢ $115 $447 +$333 (+291%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 62¢ 88¢ $310 $442 +$132 (+43%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $420 $438 +$18 (+4%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $410 $438 +$28 (+7%)
Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? No 91¢ 92¢ $416 $422 +$7 (+2%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 61¢ 99¢ $255 $413 +$159 (+62%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $288 $292 +$5 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $267 $284 +$17 (+6%)
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $249 $260 +$10 (+4%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? No 49¢ 95¢ $131 $255 +$124 (+94%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 15¢ $30 $237 +$206 (+683%)
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes 22¢ 29¢ $150 $199 +$49 (+32%)
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 64¢ 92¢ $136 $197 +$61 (+45%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $156 $174 +$18 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $214 $172 −$42 (-20%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $139 $142 +$3 (+2%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $168 $136 −$32 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 209 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) win Best Actor – Mus Jun 17 $49 −$44 -89%
Will Trump say "N Word" in January? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Gold Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Naomi Osaka be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Golden Dome" this week? (February 15) Jun 17 $26 −$33 -123%
Will "F1" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at th Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Sinners" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement Jun 17 $107 −$30 -28%
Will Trump say "Tren de Aragua" this week? (March 1) Jun 17 $0 −$43 -37702%
Will Trump say "Hellhole" this week? (February 8) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Amanda Seyfried (Long Bright River) win Best Actress – Limited Se Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times at Fort Bragg on Friday? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Trump say "Insurance Company" during remarks on January 28? Jun 17 $26 −$49 -189%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 6+ times during Cabinet meeting on March 26? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Italy win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting A Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Februar Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Kim" or "Korea" during events with Japanese PM? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 Critics Choi Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Marc Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Rust win Labor of Love at the 2025 Steam Awards? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Clean coal" or "Beautiful coal" during Kentucky visit? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Slime Rancher 2 win Sit Back and Relax in the 2025 Steam Awards? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gianni Infantino attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bruno Sangregório as Levi Ackerman (Attack on Titan: THE LAST ATT Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Battery" in Rome, GA on February 19? Jun 17 $40 −$52 -130%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 17 $17 −$9 -55%
Will Trump say "Trump" 5+ times during Ohio visit? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Hades 2 win Best Independent Game at the 2025 Game Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Objective" or "Goal" 3+ times during Address to the Na Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Elden Ring: Nightreign win Best Game You Suck At in the 2025 Stea Jun 17 $18 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "COVID" or "Pandemic" during the announcement on Thursd Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Women's Sport" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? Jun 17 $24 −$7 -31%
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the White House Easter Egg Jun 17 $12 −$13 -114%
Will Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) win Best Actress – Drama at th Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" during Women's History Month event? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during the Board of Peace Charter Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during NewsNation inter Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH win Outstanding Visual Style at the 202 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Lisa Vittozzi (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will The Last of Us: Part II Remastered win Outstanding Story-Rich Gam Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference? Jun 17 $24 −$70 -294%
Will "Drink" or "Drunk" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $46 25m
Will the announcers say "Love" or "Lovely" during the England vs Croat SELL Yes 79¢ $73 30m
Will the announcers say "Love" or "Lovely" during the England vs Croat SELL Yes 94¢ $20 36m
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $87 1h
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $85 1h
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $32 1h
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 2h
Will Warsh say "Independence" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Warsh say "Independence" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 18¢ $90 2h
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Confere SELL Yes 4¢ $8 2h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 5¢ $15 2h
Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 81¢ $373 2h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 2h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 2h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 2h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 2h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 18¢ $37 2h
Will Warsh say "Open-Minded" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 90¢ $16 2h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 26¢ $76 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 96¢ $335 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 4h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $37 4h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 4h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $18 4h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $218 4h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 4h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 4h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 4h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $25 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84,773.85 · official $84,775.79 (match) · 3500 history records