Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:21:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cad…73a5 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day71.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$57
sports 13% +$42
world 6% +$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -15.8% -23.8% 30% 21% -11.5%
≤30d 53 -15.8% -23.8% 30% 21% -11.5%
≤90d 53 -15.8% -23.8% 30% 21% -11.5%
all 53 -15.8% -23.8% 30% 21% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 21% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 19% -20.0%
15% -37.7% 17% -27.7%
20% -43.8% 15% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day71.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 70¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $68 +$5 +7%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $1 $0 -17%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 −$4 -75%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 $0 -16%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$22 +70%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $8 +$18 +225%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $55 −$8 -14%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 $0 +6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -32%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -58%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$4 -84%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $11 −$10 -86%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $5 +$12 +237%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $3 +$7 +234%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 +$2 +10%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -58%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $3 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $8 −$3 -40%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 $0 +17%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 $0 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$12 +24%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -82%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $12 −$11 -91%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$4 -36%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $33 +$15 +44%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $7 +$6 +79%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 −$5 -21%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $37 −$9 -24%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $9 −$4 -42%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -93%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$11 +109%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 +$9 +87%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$4 -20%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $9 −$3 -35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$9 -43%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $22 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 90¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 4h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 4h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 26¢ $19 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 4h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.59 · official $12.48 (match) · 177 history records