Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cad…19ff politics 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate39%18W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% +$1
world 16% $0
other 16% −$7
sports 13% +$15
weather 0% −$9
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 30% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 30% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 46 -3.6% -12.8% 39% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 9% -9.5%
10% -21.1% 7% -18.2%
15% -28.7% 7% -26.1%
20% -35.7% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses18 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage521d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $47 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $36 −$2 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $43 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $43 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $71 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $220 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $220 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $461 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $220 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $32 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $220 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Trump x Putin talk by Friday? Apr 18 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 16 $9 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 12 $9 $0 -0%
Heat vs. Mavericks Mar 20 $4 +$5 +144%
Kennesaw State vs. Louisiana Tech Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the match between PAOK and FCSB end in a draw? Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 37-38°F on February 13? Feb 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will POTUS tweet more than 25 times Feb 7-14? Feb 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 12 $1 $0 -6%
Florida A&M vs. Prairie View A&M Feb 11 $10 +$12 +113%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 05 $1 $0 -49%
Will Isaiah Likely score a touchdown? Feb 05 $8 −$1 -9%
Trump Cabinet confirmation on Day 1? Feb 05 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 22 $1 +$2 +168%
Trump positive favorability on inauguration day? Jan 20 $8 −$1 -6%
Will Trump declare a national emergency on his first day? Jan 20 $2 −$1 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 73¢ $47 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $2 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $43 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $2 5h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 8h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 8h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $47 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $47 27h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $28 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $34 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $36 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $43 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $43 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $44 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $43 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $12 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $12 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes $6 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes $6 6d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the SELL Yes 48¢ $51 52d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the SELL Yes 48¢ $3 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 123 history records