Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0C 0x0caa…c239 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+6%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$35
crypto 25% −$50
other 15% −$30
sports 12% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.7% -12.9% 40% 40% -1.5%
≤30d 5 -3.7% -12.9% 40% 40% -1.5%
≤90d 5 -3.7% -12.9% 40% 40% -1.5%
all 5 -3.7% -12.9% 40% 40% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 40% -1.5%
10% -21.2% 40% -11.0%
15% -28.9% 40% -19.6%
20% -35.8% 20% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$27 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage10d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 +$63 +246%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $100 +$35 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $88 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $135 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 71¢ $100 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records