Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:02:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0C
0x0ca9…0725
world · 79 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$11 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$63
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses31 / 47
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage523d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 78 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days−$7
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 87¢ $61 $63 +$1 (+2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $66 −$5 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $11 +$1 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $159 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $9 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $53 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $122 −$4 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $60 +$3 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 01 $165 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $61 +$29 +48%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $75 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $41 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $42 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $69 −$8 -12%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $47 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $26 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $19 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $122 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 16 $110 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $36 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $128 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $43 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $40 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3 $0 +6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $85 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% −$12
other 23% −$9
politics 13% $0
sports 11% +$1
economics 3% $0
finance 2% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $61 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $61 46h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $66 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $46 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $2 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $52 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $53 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 33% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 29 +56.2% +41.3% 48% 7% -8.6%
≤90d 73 +22.3% +10.6% 38% 3% -9.0%
all 78 +19.7% +8.3% 40% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.3% 3% -9.3%
10% -2.1% 3% -18.0%
15% -11.6% 3% -25.9%
20% -20.2% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.57 · official $62.57 (match) · 336 history records