Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:36:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0C 0x0ca6…5aa7 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,229 (+20%) realized +$1,229 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,024per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$919
other 38% +$762
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.5% -8.2% 67% 67% +15.2%
≤30d 6 +1.5% -8.2% 67% 67% +15.2%
≤90d 6 +1.5% -8.2% 67% 67% +15.2%
all 6 +1.5% -8.2% 67% 67% +15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 67% +15.2%
10% -16.9% 67% +4.2%
15% -25.0% 33% -5.9%
20% -32.3% 17% -15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$500 vs −$160 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.25 per $1 lost it wins $6.25
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,229
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1,024
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $2,311 +$647 +28%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $145 +$152 +105%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $316 −$310 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,355 +$762 +32%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $145 56m
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1,710 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $3 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $598 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $316 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 75¢ $1,095 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 75¢ $1,261 21h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 69¢ $1,009 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records