trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 3 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 25 | -14.1% | -22.2% | 48% | 16% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.2% | 16% | -10.0% |
| 10% | -29.7% | 8% | -18.6% |
| 15% | -36.5% | 4% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -42.7% | 4% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $70 | $70 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $70 | $70 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $63 | $63 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 28 | $500 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr | Apr 28 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Apr 28 | $220 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 20 | $66 | $0 | -0% |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28? | Feb 19 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Eric Adams join Trump administration by December 31? | Feb 04 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| SA20: Pretoria Capitals vs Joburg Super Kings (Game 1) | Dec 27 | $2 | −$1 | -74% |
| Will the Ole Miss Rebels be the #5 seed in the 2025-2026 College Footb | Dec 05 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Will Dolby Laboratories (DLB) beat quarterly earnings? | Dec 05 | $1 | $0 | +11% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? | Nov 11 | $4 | +$1 | +27% |
| Apple (AAPL) Up or Down - October 15 | Oct 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Astros vs. Diamondbacks | Jul 21 | $4 | −$3 | -71% |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.5% on July 11? | Jul 21 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Red Sox vs. Angels | Jul 05 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Trump tariffs Apple before July? | Jul 05 | $3 | $0 | +8% |
| 25% steel tariff in effect before May? | May 24 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Feb 11 | $6 | +$4 | +71% |
| Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia? | Jan 14 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024? | Jan 14 | $3 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? | Dec 26 | $63 | $0 | -0% |
| Will a Republican win Kansas Presidential Election? | Nov 08 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back? | Oct 17 | $2 | $0 | -10% |
| Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night | Oct 17 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC? | Sep 15 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| Will a Republican win Alaska Presidential Election? | Aug 08 | $102 | −$3 | -3% |