Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0C 0x0c9e…ecc2 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% $0
politics 46% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 36% 0% -9.5%
all 13 -0.0% -9.5% 31% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage102d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $111 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $112 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $112 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $112 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $112 $0 +0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $112 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $113 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $113 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $113 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $113 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $113 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $111 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $111 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $111 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $111 10d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $111 16d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $112 17d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $112 29d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $112 30d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 39d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 39d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 41d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 42d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $112 45d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 46d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $94 46d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 46d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $112 53d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 54d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 54d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $113 75d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $113 75d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 81d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 82d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 88d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 89d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 95d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 96d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $113 101d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $113 101d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $0 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records