Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c9e…fd82 sports 782 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$422 (+5%) realized +$492 · open −$70
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate76%561W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day66.4pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$211
14 days+$275
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$301
crypto 20% −$95
other 14% −$129
weather 7% +$21
tech 4% −$26
world 2% +$33
finance 1% +$7
politics 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +41.9% +28.4% 44% 42% +15.5%
≤30d 737 +0.9% -8.7% 76% 27% -7.7%
≤90d 737 +0.9% -8.7% 76% 27% -7.7%
all 737 +0.9% -8.7% 76% 27% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 27% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 15% -16.5%
15% -25.4% 12% -24.6%
20% -32.7% 12% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized+$492
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses561 / 176
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions45
Markets (closed)737 / 782
History coverage23d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day66.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 737 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $20 $24 +$5 (+25%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $17 $23 +$6 (+36%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $20 −$5 (-22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-12%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will Iván Cepeda win between 45% and 50% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? No 93¢ 100¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+6%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 50¢ 62¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 47¢ 48¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $8 +$2 (+50%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win at least 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? No 93¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Iván Cepeda win less than 30% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? No 97¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 55¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $12 +$11 +90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 +$26 +105%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $24 +$22 +90%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$19 +124%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $24 +$26 +105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$47 +307%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$17 +114%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $11 +$9 +83%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $12 +$11 +90%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 +$8 +76%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $18 +$24 +129%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$18 +118%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $37 +$15 +42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$66 +1288%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$8 +41%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$42 +413%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Iván Cepeda win between 50% and 55% of votes in the first round o Jun 15 $12 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$28 +140%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $12 −$3 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $14 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $12 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $12 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $12 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $12 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 4h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 52¢ $12 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $15 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $12 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $12 6h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $12 7h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $12 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 9h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro $5 9h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova $5 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy $5 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands $5 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $12 10h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $5 11h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 11h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 17h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 17h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $11 23h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $12 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.64 · official $342.64 (match) · 2635 history records