Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:28:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c9c…48ea crypto 783 markets active 4d ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$467 (-6%) realized −$467 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%348W / 435L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day40.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$479
14 days−$504
30 days−$699
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$747
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -21.0% -28.5% 28% 28% -69.8%
≤30d 471 -6.1% -15.1% 42% 40% -20.1%
≤90d 783 -7.0% -15.8% 44% 42% -17.8%
all 783 -7.0% -15.8% 44% 42% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 42% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 41% -25.7%
15% -31.2% 38% -32.9%
20% -38.0% 36% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$467
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses348 / 435
Open positions0
Markets (closed)783 / 783
History coverage36d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day40.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 783 Trades
no open positions (116 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $128 −$123 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$16 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$14 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$7 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $24 +$59 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$9 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$10 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$9 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $11 +$15 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $53 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $53 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $63 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2174 history records