Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c99…87cf other 262 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$24,870 (-28%) realized −$24,861 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate53%107W / 95L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Fees−$237est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$15,606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$6,439
sports 25% +$461
world 18% +$535
politics 5% +$539
crypto 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -7.2% -16.0% 41% 20% -4.2%
≤30d 126 -2.3% -11.6% 48% 22% -2.9%
≤90d 192 +7.9% -2.4% 52% 26% -4.1%
all 202 +6.9% -3.3% 53% 25% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.3% 25% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 16% -12.7%
15% -21.0% 13% -21.1%
20% -28.8% 9% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$130 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$15,606
Realized−$24,861
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses107 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$237
Open positions110
Markets (closed)202 / 262
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$334
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 110 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 75¢ 81¢ $3,005 $3,260 +$255 (+8%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 75¢ 72¢ $1,639 $1,574 −$65 (-4%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $680 $625 −$55 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $485 $523 +$38 (+8%)
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 72¢ $598 $503 −$95 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $430 $421 −$10 (-2%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $396 $378 −$18 (-5%)
Will Harry Kane score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $364 $366 +$2 (+0%)
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $363 $347 −$16 (-5%)
Will Belgium go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $299 $342 +$43 (+14%)
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $265 $289 +$24 (+9%)
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 93¢ 80¢ $328 $283 −$45 (-14%)
Will Harry Kane score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 97¢ $259 $273 +$13 (+5%)
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? No 17¢ 100¢ $45 $264 +$220 (+491%)
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 74¢ 66¢ $268 $240 −$28 (-10%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $231 $236 +$4 (+2%)
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 82¢ 85¢ $222 $230 +$8 (+4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $120 $225 +$105 (+88%)
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? No 89¢ 93¢ $196 $205 +$9 (+5%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $199 $191 −$8 (-4%)
Will Germany be the highest-scoring team in Group E during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 97¢ $145 $174 +$29 (+20%)
Will Tomás Araújo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 6¢ 56¢ $18 $172 +$153 (+833%)
Will Noah Okafor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 86¢ $132 $168 +$35 (+27%)
Will Belgium be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 42¢ $287 $162 −$125 (-44%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $147 $152 +$5 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Biden finish his term? Jun 17 $71 −$62 -87%
Will Germany win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%? Jun 17 $424 −$424 -100%
Will Finland record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 17 $0 −$5 -46118%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 17 $0 −$105 -603462%
Winter Games 2026: Will USA or Norway earn more medals? Jun 17 $0 −$100 -82150%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Estonia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 17 $0 −$21 -6548%
Will Italy win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 17 $42 −$73 -176%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 17 $55 −$78 -142%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Jun 17 $0 −$472 -787280%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Powell say "Median" during January press conference? Jun 17 $239 −$239 -100%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 17 $1 −$22 -3280%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 17 $0 −$296 -3017222%
Will Sander Eitrem (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics Jun 17 $0 −$217 -161543%
Will Mathis Desloges (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-28? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $134 −$134 -100%
Men's Group A - Czechia vs. Canada Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sweden win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics Jun 17 $0 −$17 -20584%
Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Mixe Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Kazakhstan record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 17 $269 −$269 -100%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League final? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will USA win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women' Jun 17 $70 −$76 -108%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-28? Jun 17 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey bronze medal at the 2026 Win Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Germany win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 17 $0 +$5 +58282%
Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Men' Jun 17 $10 −$13 -122%
Will Kristine Stavaas Skistad (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olym Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Kirsty Muir (GBR) win the gold medal for Ski Slopestyle - Women's Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Denmark record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 17 $274 −$274 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Jun 17 $1 −$32 -3978%
Will Merel Conijn (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: S Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winte Jun 17 $33 −$140 -428%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01? Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Jun 17 $807 −$822 -102%
Will Latvia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 17 $0 $0 -146%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Jun 17 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 17 $0 +$77 +2859500%
Will New Zealand record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey bronze medal at the 2026 Winter O Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Camille Rast (SUI) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: A Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 1h
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 75¢ $41 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 2h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 9¢ $19 3h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 6¢ $282 3h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 3h
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 80¢ $71 4h
Will Kobbie Mainoo be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 94¢ $47 4h
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 25¢ $13 4h
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 23¢ $2 4h
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 19¢ $1 4h
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 7¢ $4 4h
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 7¢ $3 4h
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 5¢ $2 4h
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL Yes 95¢ $79 4h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 86¢ $54 11h
Will Noah Okafor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $38 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,606.49 · official $15,601.16 (match) · 3500 history records