Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:23:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0c96…56ba world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 33L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$4
other 17% −$1
crypto 6% $0
sports 5% +$8
politics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +15.8% +4.8% 55% 9% -9.1%
≤30d 14 +12.7% +2.0% 57% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 23 +9.7% -0.7% 57% 9% -8.7%
all 52 +3.7% -6.2% 37% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 4% -8.9%
10% -15.2% 4% -17.6%
15% -23.4% 4% -25.5%
20% -30.9% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage286d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $145 +$1 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $6 +$1 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $70 +$1 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $79 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $11 $0 -3%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $53 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $70 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $64 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $70 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $3 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $59 +$3 +6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $68 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $48 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $69 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $69 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 18 $8 −$2 -30%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $11 +$8 +72%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Feb 21 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $10 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Nov 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $6 $0 +3%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 21 $1 $0 -16%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 18 $2 $0 -19%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 16 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $67 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $22 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $37 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $9 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $4 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $62 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $1 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $24 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $70 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3 23h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 37h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 88¢ $70 47h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 89¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $61 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $71 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $70 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $6 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $72 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $79 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.00 (match) · 201 history records