Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0C 0x0c96…5494 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$21 (+39%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$3
politics 40% +$5
sports 9% +$13
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +100.7% +81.5% 67% 67% +55.9%
≤30d 3 +100.7% +81.5% 67% 67% +55.9%
≤90d 3 +100.7% +81.5% 67% 67% +55.9%
all 9 +14.7% +3.7% 56% 56% +24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 56% +24.2%
10% -6.2% 56% +12.3%
15% -15.2% 33% +1.5%
20% -23.6% 33% -8.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage150d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +249%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +153%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 23 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Jan 22 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 17 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records