Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0C 0x0c95…5cba crypto 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%64W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$44
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$47
other 14% +$27
sports 10% +$19
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +11.8% +1.1% 63% 63% +8.2%
≤30d 19 +11.8% +1.1% 63% 63% +8.2%
≤90d 19 +11.8% +1.1% 63% 63% +8.2%
all 125 +1.8% -7.9% 51% 50% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 50% -9.1%
10% -16.7% 44% -17.8%
15% -24.7% 38% -25.7%
20% -32.1% 30% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses64 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)125 / 128
History coverage109d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 44¢ 46¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -11%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -7%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$4 +14%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -5%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$12 +60%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 19 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 19 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 19 $9 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 19 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 16 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 16 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 16 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 16 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 16 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 05 $108 −$106 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 05 $120 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 05 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 05 $93 +$22 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 05 $79 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 05 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 05 $11 −$10 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 05 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 05 $6 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 05 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $10 1h
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $12 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $20 5h
England to score first vs. Croatia? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $12 8h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 8h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 18h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 18h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 18h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $16 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 27h
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $11 27h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $10 27h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 60¢ $18 27h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $20 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 28h
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.79 · official $60.79 (match) · 313 history records